July retail sales increase, 6th month in a row
Posted on 16 Aug 2010
Core sales in the specialist retail sector grew by 3.6% in July vs. 2009 to rack up the sixth month of continuous sales growth.
Like for like core sales - excluding cycle to work and retail finance - have grown by 5.1% vs. 2009 in the last 6 months (excluding the weather impacted January business), exactly matching the growth witnessed in February - July 2009 vs. 2008. The difference this year is that sales volumes have not (yet) been significantly impacted by currency driven price inflation as in 2009, when IBDs attributed this as the biggest factor influencing revenue growth.
Therefore this year's sales growth better reflects consumer trends, although the weather has made a notable contribution to the 5.5% growth experienced in the specialist sector since Easter. With the weather forecast now turning to changeable, we can expect growth to temper in line with the August and September trend experienced in 2009.
Past the peak
The seasonal sales volume peak can vary between June and July dependent upon the sample group surveyed, but the significant sales uplift witnessed in June of 8.4% vs. 2009 ensured that it was clearly the peak trading month of 2010.
July sales volumes dropped by -11.7% vs. June with 43% of retailers reporting a sales shortfall in the month vs. 2009. Most significantly, retailers reporting a -20% or greater shortfall vs. 2009 increased to 19% of contributors as opposed to 15% in June.
July Cycle Retailer Fact File
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July like for like core sales increased 3.6% vs. 2009 (June 8.4%; May 1.7%; Apr 7.6%; Mar 2.3%; Feb 7.6%; Jan -17%)
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29% of retailers reported sales UP by more than 20% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 29%; May 29%; Apr 32%; Mar 24%; Feb 34%; Jan 13%)
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11% of retailers reported sales UP by between 10% - 20% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 13%; May 6%; Apr 13%; Mar 12%; Feb 7%; Jan 5%)
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17% of retailers reported sales UP by between 0% - 10% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 12%; May 16%; Apr 12%; Mar 16%; Feb 12%; Jan 6%)
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14% of retailers reported sales DOWN by between 0% - 10% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 16%; May 14%; Apr 17%; Mar 16%; Feb 13%; Jan 9%)
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10% of retailers reported sales DOWN by between 10% - 20% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 15%; May 11%; Apr 9%; Mar 9%; Feb 11%; Jan 14%)
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19% of retailers reported sales DOWN by more than 20% in July 10 vs. 09 (June 15%; May 26%; Apr 17%; Mar 23%; Feb 23%; Jan 53%)
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The overall increase in the growing businesses was 22.3% vs. July 09 (June 27.4%; May 24%; Apr 27.4%; Mar 22.9%; Feb 27.7%; Jan 21.7%)
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The overall decrease in the shrinking businesses was -20.3% vs. July 09 (June -16.1%; May -18.8%; Apr -17.2%; Mar -19.1%; Feb -20.1%; Jan -28.7%)
57% of retailers reported core sales up in the month, an increase on June's 54%, but the overall sales growth in these retailers of 22.3% was significantly down on the 27.4% increase experienced by the growing retailers in June.
The 43% of retailers with a sales shortfall vs. July 2009 reported an overall sales reduction of -20.3% compared with just -16.1% in June, which was the lowest overall sales reduction reported in 2010 to date. The sunshine is obviously a great leveller.
The retailers reporting a +20% growth in June grew by 44.9% in the month, whilst those reporting a sales shortfall in excess of -20% saw sales shrink by -32.6% overall. Both figures were similar to those experienced in June.
The Wider Picture
The analysis excludes cycle to work, where comparative like for like industry volume figures don't currently exist and retail finance, where sales growth continues unabated. July sales volumes via the ride it away scheme (operated by ActSmart and Moneyway) were over 91% higher than the comparable scheme operated with Lloyds Black Horse in July 2009. The average transaction volume in July was over £1000, reflecting some continued buoyancy in the more committed cyclist sector as opposed to new recruits to cycling.
Market research figures were derived from 295 specialist cycle retail businesses and workshops throughout the UK, representing c350 shop fronts ranging in size from annual turnovers of £25k to £3m each The performance figures apply to core like for like retail sales only; they do not include sales achieved via retail finance, cycle to work schemes or other non-core sales transactions, which will increase growth rates accordingly. No significant internet/mail order ‘only' businesses participated in this research.
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